If you were surprised Thursday to find out that USC and UCLA were leaving the Pac-12 for the Big Ten and the money, you weren’t alone. The difference in the television packages the SEC and Big Ten have compared to the ACC, Big 12 and Pac 12, is too large to be ignored, and the Los Angeles duo won’t be the only ones to make the cash dash.
On Tuesday the Big 12 will meet with Arizona, Arizona State, Utah and Colorado about jumping, and if they leave then the P12 is done. Pac 12 officials also say they’re looking at expanding, but the Big 12 in much better shape right now, and there is almost zero chance that both conferences will survive. Count me among the heavy majority who believe the Pac 12 is a dead man walking.
Of course the larger news may be what Notre Dame does, and hearing the Irish will join the Big Ten, with possibly some ACC heavy hitters, who will also likely be courted by the SEC and ESPN.
The ACC still can survive losing Notre Dame, but they cannot survive if they additionally lost Clemson, Miami, Florida State, Virginia Tech or North Carolina…and they may.
This time around we’ll still likely have four power conferences, but we’re heading towards two major conferences and it may follow the NFL model of two conferences who each have their own divisions and playoffs, with the winners of each division meeting in the College Super Bowl.
I believe we’re still another TV contract away from that, but the 12 team (or more) playoff is not far behind. Of course with NIL changing recruiting in a big way, and giving the big boys even better talent advantage, to predict anything with relative confidence is impossible.